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Contributions from Brendan Burke, Stan Fischler, Chris King, and Jiggs McDonald.
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Good Morning, Islanders Country.
Here’s to you, Buddy Robinson, and you too, Andreas Athanasiou. Oh, and Petr Mrazek, especially you. Thank you, the city of Chicago, for allowing your beloved Blackhawks to hurt themselves in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes to deliver a stunning blow to the Pittsburgh Penguins and hand the Islanders an opportunity to right the wrong from Monday night and clinch a playoff berth tonight in front of what should be a raucous home crowd at UBS Arena in the season finale.
I watched every minute of this game (thanks, ESPN+), and there were some ominous signs for the Penguins, just as there were for the Isles the prior night. But now, that ominous cloud hanging over Long Island has dissipated, and the Islanders have more than a lifeline. They control their playoff fate and can clinch a playoff spot on home ice tonight vs. the Montreal Canadiens.
That’s hockey, Butchie.
Here are the latest Isles playoff scenarios after the Penguins’ loss:
The Islanders clinch a playoff berth with one point vs. Montreal
The Isles would earn the 7th seed with a regulation win and a Florida Panthers loss of any kind to the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday night.
If the Isles win in Overtime or the Shootout, then Florida would be the 7th seed if they earn a point vs. the Hurricanes.
If the Islanders lose in regulation to Montreal, they’ll need the Columbus Blue Jackets to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins to make the playoffs.
Many said they didn’t deserve to make the playoffs after the loss to the Washington Capitals, don’t make them have to say it again after tonight.
Coming up, the Isles aim to end the regular season on the highest of notes, and the players have different answers to questions about their intensity and urgency. Plus, the advanced stats Vezina case for Ilya Sorokin and Jordan Eberle is a playoff hero vs. the Penguins in 2019.
Let’s dive in.
📰 NEWS: It’s Game 82, and the Islanders control their destiny and can clinch a spot in the postseason and end the 2022-23 regular season on the highest of notes at home against the Montreal Canadiens at UBS Arena later tonight. Led by Martin St. Louis, the Habs are 13 points better than they were last season but still are last in the Atlantic Division. Nick Suzuki leads the team with 64 points and also has 17 points in the past 19 games. Montreal has won just one of its last six games and will wrap up its season on Thursday night against the Boston Bruins.
In their last meeting on Feb.11, Montreal came back from a 3-2 deficit in the third period and defeated the Islanders 4-3 in OT when Mike Matheson scored at 4:38 of overtime after the Isles failed to convert on a power play in overtime.
There were a variety of opinions in the Isles dressing room after Monday’s night loss when the players were asked whether the team’s urgency was where it needed to be given what was at stake. “I don’t think so,” said Casey Cizikas when asked if the team came out with enough intensity. "We have to know what’s at stake, and we have to know what we’re playing for. We’ve just got to make sure we’re ready.”
Meanwhile, Zach Parise didn’t agree with the interpretation that the team lacked urgency in the game. “The urgency’s always there for us,” said the 38-year-old Parise. “I think that’s thrown around a little loosely. You can never convince me that we weren’t urgent and we weren’t ready to play. They just got a few early. I wouldn’t say that we didn’t have urgency. I don’t think that’s fair.”
Things everyone can agree on is that Monday’s performance was a convergence of a lot of the troubling trends that have marred the Islanders’ season. Slow starts are one of them, but also an inept power-play and an inability to finish even when creating consistent chances. The coaching staff hasn’t had answers, and neither have the players. The effort level is there, but that hasn’t prevented a number of bad habits from rearing their heads at inopportune times.
Tonight would be a good time to break those habits.
◾️ From Sunday, The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman took an in-depth look at how the Vezina Trophy race should be measured. The main point Goldman conveys is that a goaltender’s stats, the core ones (Wins, Goals Against Average, and Save Percentage), are a product of their surroundings, which is why other factors should be taken into consideration when determining the top candidates.
Ilya Sorokin is viewed as a goaltender that has excelled despite the challenges in front of him. “A way to measure that is by comparing a goalie’s actual save percentage to expectations, to get a gist of how they perform relative to an average netminder in that situation,” writes Goldman.
To do this, Goldman takes into consideration a goalie’s workload and looks at delta save percentage, which is the difference between a goalie’s expected save percentage and his actual save percentage. Sorokin leads all starters with a plus-2.08. Linus Ullmark is right behind him (2.01), followed by Jusse Saros (1.54).
Ullmark is the heavy favorite to claim the Vezina Trophy. He leads in every traditional relevant category, and his Boston Bruins have had a historic regular season. Still, even those that don’t rely heavily on advanced analytics acknowledge Sorokin’s season and what he has meant to the Islanders, making him a likely finalist for the award for the first time in his career.
⏭ NEXT UP: It’s fan appreciation night and the final game of the regular season as the Isles host the Montreal Canadiens at UBS Arena. Face-off is 7:00 PM.
📊 STANDINGS: With the Penguins’ loss, the Florida Panthers clinched a playoff spot. The Buffalo Sabres were eliminated from playoff contention after a 6-2 loss to the New Jersey Devils in Newark. The Devils trail the Carolina Hurricanes by one point, with one game left to play for both teams on Thursday night.
📚 SOUND SMART: Per Eric Hornick in The Skinny, Monday night’s 5-2 loss in Washington was the third time this season that the Isles have allowed two empty-net goals. It is the fourth time in Isles history that they have allowed two goals in the first 1:03 of the game; the last time was on April 9, 2011, in Philadelphia (2 in the first 0:47 of the season finale). The Isles scored only 3 goals in the final 221:08 on the road this season (with two of them coming in the final 5:08 tonight).
🗓 ISLES REWIND: On April 12, 2019, Jordan Eberle and Josh Bailey scored less than four minutes apart in the third period as the Isles beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-1 for a 2-0 lead in their first-round playoff series. The Isles took the lead when Barzal sent the puck up to Eberle on the right side, and he skated across the front and sent a backhand in at 7:54 of the third for a 2-1 lead.
🎧 Islanders Anxiety - Episode 242 - Dreading the Feeling “Mike and Dan react to the Islanders' 5-2 loss in Washington on Monday night, a devastating blow to their playoff hopes. With an embarrassing performance in a must-win game, this year's team proved once again that it cannot be trusted with their hands on the wheel.”
🔗 Desperation now a reality for Islanders with season on line by Andrew Gross, Newsday “The Islanders entered Tuesday’s play holding the Eastern Conference’s second wild-card spot, pending the result of the Penguins’ home game against lottery-bound Chicago. The Islanders can finish with a maximum of 93 points. The Panthers and Penguins could both get to 94. Their inexplicable lapses may have cost them their season.”
And we leave you with this… Islanders play-by-play announcer Brendan Burke with a suggestion on how to show your appreciation to the Chicago Blackhawks
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"It’s fan appreciation night" - there is exactly one way to show appreciation to the fans tonight.