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Good Morning, Islanders Country.
Among the narratives this season has been how the Islanders are “wasting” a Vezina Trophy-level campaign from Ilya Sorokin, which has fans contemplating if they’re wasting him now, wouldn’t they be wasting him - just at a higher price tag - if the organization chose to rebuild and not retool?
Sorokin - even ahead of Mathew Barzal, is the team’s most valuable asset. At 27 years old, he’s entering the prime of his career and is widely recognized as a Top-5 goaltender in the league. The haul could be massive and jump-start a rebuild in a way that few moves could.
I am not a proponent of trading Sorokin- yet.
That could change. Let me explain.
If the Islanders can’t extend their goaltender after this season AND they’re pivoting to a rebuild, it is something that should be considered.
We understand that many of you vehemently disagree. Our pal Dan Saraceni from Lighthouse Hockey made the point on an entertaining thread that “if the Islanders trade Ilya Sorokin for any reason, it will be 25 years before they see a goalie even *almost* as good as he is” Hard to argue against that, but do you need a goaltender as good as him to win a Stanley Cup? Debatable.
The current state of the Islanders makes it unlikely that such a move would be considered at this March’s trade deadline; it’s just too much of a franchise-altering decision to execute with uncertainty surrounding who will be running the team next season and beyond.
However, there is a compelling case to be made that trading Sorokin would be in the best long-term interests of the franchise if and only if they choose to go the full rebuild route, factoring in a few considerations, including the market, his age, and their ability to extend him this summer.
THE MARKET
Expect an offer a tad below the Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Andrei Vasilevskiy level - $8M on the low end, $9M AAV on the high. When you take into account Sorokin’s age and numbers, there is no one of his caliber reaching the open market before he does. The most comparable goaltenders are the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterikin and Jusse Saros of the Nashville Predators.
The Blueshirts signed Shesterkin after he posted a 16-14-3 record, along with a 2.62 GAA, a .916 SV%, and 2 SO during the 2021 season. The extension was for 4 years / $22.6M, an AAV for 5.66M. He’ll be a free agent after the 2024-25 season, also at age 29. Meanwhile, Saros signed a 4-year / $20M contract with Preds before the 2021 season and will be a free agent at age 30 for the 2025-26 season.
Sorokin will set the market for this next wave of elite goalies.
AGE AND LENGTH OF DEAL
This is only Sorokin’s third full NHL season, but his late arrival to North America means he will be turning 29 the summer he’s set to be a free agent.
This will be his only opportunity for a max-term deal, which would likely carry him through his mid-30s. His best, most productive years could be spent on Islanders teams looking to get back to perennial playoff team status rather than competing for a Stanley Cup.
When a goalie’s AAV is around 10% of a team’s overall cap, it leaves little to spend on a quality backup, meaning a heavy workload is expected and could start to take its toll on the backend of the contract.
SIGN TO AN EXTENSION
Under Lou Lamoriello, the Modus Operandi has been to sign players to extensions the summer before their restricted or unrestricted free agency. It happened with Adam Pelech, it happened with Ryan Pulock, and it just happened with Barzal. It can happen with Sorokin after July 1st.
If Sorokin and his agent are reluctant to sign an extension given the direction of the franchise this summer or want to test the market with the cap going up, the Isles have to consider moving him or risk losing their best asset for nothing. As we know all too well, that has happened before.
A lot can and will happen between now and the summer, but if your initial reaction to trading Sorokin was under no circumstances, perhaps some of you can acknowledge there is at least one.
What are your thoughts? Leave us a comment.
Coming up, the Isles aim to end their five-game losing streak in Ottawa, and Jakob Chychrun is linked to the team … again. Plus, the commish says there’s no tanking, Mike Bossy is ranked on the Top 100 list, Al Arbour’s first banner is raised, and Clark Gillies’ grandson attends his first game.
Let’s dive in.
📰 NEWS: The Islanders had the day off on Tuesday as they head into Ottawa to battle the Senators (20-23-3). Brady Tkachuk and Tim Stützle have scored 37 goals and 53 assists to lead the top line, but the rest of the offense has struggled. Only six skaters have eight goals, and the team announced on Monday that the team’s leading goal-scorer, Josh Norris, is done for the year after aggravating a shoulder injury that requires season-ending surgery.
◾️ In Newsday, Andrew Gross writes that there was no defense for no defense in the second period against Toronto on Monday night. The Islanders allowed three breakaway goals and a fourth that led to a penalty shot.
◾️ The Arizona Coyotes have seemingly been testing the market for defenseman Jakob Chychrun since last season, and the Islanders have continually been linked to the 24-year-old defenseman throughout that time. On Tuesday's edition of The Jeff Marek Show, Elliotte Friedman and Jeff Marek discussed whether the Isles were still looking at Chychrun and if that still made sense given the price tag and the current state of the team.
◾️ Tanking? I’m shocked! NHL commissioner Gary Bettman spoke to the issue of tanking the NHL - an issue he says does not exist because of the league’s weighted lottery that gives the worst team in the league a 75% chance of NOT getting the first pick. The media and fans weren’t buying it, citing that the lottery system actually incentivizes missing the playoffs for more teams.
⏭ NEXT UP: The Islanders are in Ottawa tonight, aiming to break their five-game losing streak. Will they score more than three goals? We’ll see. Face-off vs. the Senators from the Canadian Tire Centre is at 7:00 PM ET.
📊 STANDINGS: After the Penguins’ wild 7-6 win over the Florida Panthers in OT, the Islanders are five points out of a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
On the 42nd anniversary of his scoring 50 goals in 50 games, Mike Bossy came in No. 12 on The Athletic’s Best 100 Players in Modern NHL History list. The story on Bossy, written by Long Island’s own Michael Russo, features his daughter Tanya on growing up with a famous hockey Dad, the unparalleled chemistry between Bossy and Bryan Trottier, and teammates Bucth Goring, Denis Potvin and Ken Morrow commenting on his greatness on the ice.
Denis Potvin
“Mike Bossy had more courage than I think any goal scorer I’ve ever seen. He would go to those dirty areas, and maybe that’s what made his career short because he took more cross-checks and slashes in front of the opposing net than anybody I’ve seen. But he just kept going back for more.”
Butch Goring
“Ovi may break Gretzky’s record, but nobody scores goals like Boss. He didn’t rely on that heavy slapshot that Ovi has. He was a sniper. I mean, you give him a chance in the slot area or what have you, he buried it, and guys knew where he wanted to shoot it. He only shot basically in two places. He was low-stick, or he was five-hole.”
📚 SOUND SMART: Per Eric Hornick in The Skinny, the Isles have not scored a third-period goal in a franchise-record ten straight games (since scoring three in Vancouver) and have been outscored 12-0 in that stretch… The Isles' third-period differential is now just +1; the Isles were +16 in the third period through 23 games but are -15 over the last 26 games
🗓 ISLES REWIND: On Jan. 25, 1997, the Islanders honored Al Arbour after the legendary head coach had recently joined the Hockey Hall of Fame. A banner commemorating Arbour's 739 wins is raised to the rafters of the Nassau Coliseum, and the road leading to the arena is renamed “Al Arbour Way.”
As for the game, Derek Armstrong scored at 14:39 of the third period to break a 2-2 tie as the Islanders, behind 47 saves from Eric Fichaud, defeated the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2. Ziggy Palffy (SHG) and Bryan Smolinksi had the other goals.
🎧 Eyes on Isles Podcast: Where do we go from here? On the latest edition of the Eyes on Isles Podcast, Joe Buono (@IslesFix) and Andy Francess (@AndyFrancess) have come to expect the Islanders' poor play and the lack of adjustments by Lane Lambert.
🔗 Life lessons with Stanley Cup winner Barry Trotz, who will be back soon enough by Sean Gentille, The Athletic “Barry Trotz — the biggest name and best resume on the NHL coaching market, as has been the case since the spring — had no interest in coaching the Vancouver Canucks. Or any other team, actually”
And we leave you with this…a couple of days after the 1-year anniversary of his passing, Clark Gillies’ grandson attended his first NHL game between the Isles and Leafs. His Dad, Justin, son of Bob Bourne, was able to arrange for some special access.
Thanks for reading! Follow us on Twitter for regular updates until the next newsletter.
And please check out our newsletters about the Knicks and Mets, too.
The scenario you mentioned is the only one where trading him is acceptable.
Think so, even at a high price tag, if you can agree to an extension over the summer you just hope you can rebuild quick enough where you’re back in the mix in a few seasons as our crosstown rivals were